With Arsenal steaming ahead in the Premier League title race from the off while Manchester City stumbled, the one thing Pep Guardiola's side could cling on to was their capacity for a strong finish. City have a remarkable history of reeling in their title rivals in when it matters most by going on what became their trademark relentless runs. But one month into 2026, there is little evidence of that happening this time around.

Don’t Worry, Arsenal – This Man City Aren’t Cut Out for Their Usual Late-Season Onslaught on the Title Race

Why Arsenal Should Feel Calm as Manchester City Falter in Familiar Territory

For years, there has been one unshakable truth in the Premier League title race: never write off Manchester City. No matter how sluggish their start, no matter how far adrift they appear by Christmas, Pep Guardiola’s side have built a reputation for turning the second half of the season into a ruthless, joyless march towards silverware.

Arsenal know this better than anyone. They have been burned by it. Twice.

So when the Gunners surged clear early this season while City stumbled, the natural reaction among Arsenal supporters was caution rather than celebration. “Wait for City,” became the familiar refrain. “They’ll go on one of those runs.”

The problem for City — and the opportunity for Arsenal — is that this Manchester City don’t look capable of producing that run. One month into 2026, the signs are impossible to ignore. The machine that once crushed hope with relentless efficiency is spluttering, fragile, and increasingly unsure of itself.

A Telling Night in North London

City’s 2-2 draw away at Tottenham felt like a turning point, not just because of the dropped points, but because of how they were dropped. For 45 minutes, Guardiola’s side looked every inch the champions of old. They toyed with Spurs, moved the ball at will, and controlled the tempo so completely that Gary Neville likened the contest to Soccer Aid, describing the atmosphere as “flat as a pancake”.

And yet, when the second half arrived, City vanished.

Instead of finishing Tottenham off, they allowed them back into the game. They slowed down, became careless in possession, and stopped winning duels. Spurs sensed weakness, raised their intensity, and City folded. Two goals conceded, control lost, and a point that felt more like a defeat.

Yes, City felt aggrieved by Dominic Solanke’s equaliser, believing a foul on Marc Guéhi should have ruled it out. But the reaction afterwards was far more revealing than the decision itself. Guardiola was animated. Rodri went further, suggesting that officials “don’t want us to win”.

Those are not the words of a team calmly confident in its own power. They are the words of a side starting to feel the pressure.

Always Finishing Stronger… Until Now

Manchester City v Chelsea FC – Premier League

The reason Arsenal fans remain wary every season is simple: history. Manchester City have made a habit of turning title races upside down after January.

In 2018-19, City were third at the halfway point, then collected an astonishing 54 points from a possible 57, edging Liverpool by a single point.
In 2021-22, they stormed through the second half of the campaign with 46 points, sealing another crown.
In 2022-23, Arsenal’s eight-point lead was wiped out by a brutal run of 12 consecutive City wins.
In 2023-24, Guardiola’s men went unbeaten across the run-in, winning 16 of their final 19 matches.

Liverpool, Arsenal, and virtually everyone else have learned the hard way that City, when they click, are relentless.

But this season is different. Not subtly different — fundamentally different.

…But Not This Year

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City – Premier League

Bernardo Silva admitted as much back in December, saying:

“It’s true that our teams have always been much better in the second part of the season than the first, and hopefully it happens again this season.”

The hope was there. The evidence, however, is not.

In 2026, Manchester City have taken just seven points from a possible 18. They have won one league match — against Wolves, a side flirting with historical levels of underperformance. This is not the profile of a team building momentum.

Even more concerning is how those points have been dropped.

Second-Half Woes Expose a Deeper Issue

Manchester City v Chelsea – Premier League

City’s biggest problem is no longer their attack, or even their injuries. It’s their inability to control games after the break.

In six league matches played in 2026, City have:

Scored zero second-half goals
Conceded six
Dropped nine points from winning positions

The pattern is unmistakable. Strong starts. Weak finishes.

Against Chelsea, City were dominant before half-time, only to retreat into themselves and invite pressure. Enzo Fernández’s late equaliser felt inevitable long before it arrived.

At Tottenham, it was worse. Once Pape Matar Sarr was introduced to add energy to Spurs’ midfield, City had no response. Guardiola waited until the 69th minute to make a change — and even then, it was forced by Rayan Cherki picking up a knock rather than any tactical adjustment.

This is not the Guardiola teams we’ve grown accustomed to. These City sides used to suffocate opponents, manage chaos, and kill games stone dead. Now, they allow life back in.

‘They Don’t Have That Killer Instinct’

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City – Premier League

Gary Neville didn’t hold back in his assessment, and his words will have resonated with Arsenal supporters.

“They don’t have that killer instinct. They struggle when teams put them under pressure. They don’t withstand it. They haven’t got the centre-backs who are dominant.”

It’s a brutal critique, but not an unfair one. City’s defensive issues are glaring. With Rúben Dias, John Stones, and Joško Gvardiol all sidelined, the spine that once gave them control has crumbled.

Danny Murphy echoed those concerns on the BBC, pointing out that City’s collapse wasn’t because Spurs suddenly became brilliant.

“It was more that Tottenham just wanted it more in the second half. That is a concern for Pep Guardiola.”

Desire, intensity, resilience — these are qualities Arsenal are showing in abundance this season.

Arsenal’s Edge: Mentality and Depth

FBL-ENG-PR-TOTTENHAM-MAN CITY

While Arsenal are not without their own issues — Mikel Merino’s injury and fresh concerns over Bukayo Saka are far from ideal — they remain in a far healthier position than City.

Arsenal currently have three first-team players injured
City have six, including all three of their preferred centre-backs

More importantly, Arsenal are showing an ability to respond to setbacks. Their dramatic defeat to Manchester United could have derailed them. Instead, they went to Leeds and produced an emphatic, controlled performance. Then they were handed an unexpected gift as City stumbled at Spurs.

This Arsenal side looks comfortable carrying the pressure. This City side does not.

A Gruelling Run Ahead for City

The fixture list does Guardiola no favours either. With Arsenal hosting a Sunderland side winless in seven away matches, City could find themselves nine points behind before they even kick a ball this weekend.

Their task? Anfield.

City have won just once in their last 10 visits to Liverpool, and that solitary victory came behind closed doors during the Covid-affected 2020-21 season. It is one of the toughest assignments in English football, especially for a team short on confidence.

Guardiola may insist the race is not over — and technically, he’s right.

“We’re 14 games away. As long as the chance is there, the hope is always going to be there.”

Hope, though, is not momentum.

FBL-ENG-PR-TOTTENHAM-MAN CITY

Searching for Their Soul

Even January reinforcements like Marc Guéhi and Antoine Semenyo have not masked the deeper issue. This City side feels like a team in transition, unsure of its identity, and lacking the ruthless edge that defined Guardiola’s greatest versions.

As Neville put it:

“They haven’t got the rock-solid spine that can go and win a title. There is a lot of soul-searching for City and Pep Guardiola. They look well short.”

Conclusion: Arsenal Hold the Advantage

There is still a long way to go. Title races are rarely straightforward, and football has a habit of humbling bold predictions. But this is the stage of the season when Manchester City are supposed to be accelerating, not stalling.

Instead of another famous onslaught, we are seeing hesitation, fragility, and frustration.

History carries weight — but current evidence matters more. Right now, Arsenal look like a team ready to withstand pressure. Manchester City look like a team trying to remember who they used to be.

For the first time in years, Arsenal fans might be justified in thinking: this time, it really is different.