Are Tottenham Too Big to Go Down? Relegation Fears Grow

‘It Would Be Catastrophic’ – Are Spurs Too Big to Go Down?

Tottenham Hotspur’s heavy 4-1 north London derby defeat to Arsenal has intensified fears that the unthinkable could happen — relegation from the Premier League.

Under interim head coach Igor Tudor, Spurs sit just four points above the drop zone. They have not won a league match in 2026 and have picked up only two victories since late October.

For a club that has spent just one season outside England’s top flight since 1950, the situation is alarming.

How Serious Is the Threat?

Data experts Opta give Spurs only a 4.84% chance of relegation. But recent form paints a far bleaker picture.

Since beating Everton in October, Tottenham have averaged just 0.67 points per game — form consistent with relegation-level returns. If that trend continues, Spurs could finish on just 36 points.

Former Spurs midfielder Danny Murphy believes they will survive — but only just.

“It would be catastrophic for that club,” Murphy told BBC Sport. “I think they will have just enough.”

Spurs’ home record at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is among the worst in the division. Only Wolves have collected fewer home points this season.

Injury Crisis and Mentality Questions

The last match Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison both played together for Spurs was 1 May 2025, against Bodo/Glimt

The long-term absences of Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have severely limited creativity, while 11 first-team players were unavailable last weekend.

Last season under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs finished 17th but were never seriously threatened. They still scored 64 goals and lifted the Europa League.

This campaign, the attacking output has dipped sharply. Spurs would need to average 2.45 goals per game over their final fixtures to match last season’s tally — a significant ask.

Former full-back Stephen Kelly believes survival may depend more on other teams’ weaknesses than Tottenham’s strengths.

What Would Relegation Mean Financially?

Brian Clough’s final act as Nottingham Forest manager was seeing his side lose their top-flight status

Relegation would trigger severe economic consequences.

• Estimated revenue drop: £261m annually

• Wage bill: £254m (Championship average is £38m)

• Shirt sponsor AIA (£40m per year) likely contains relegation clauses

• Outstanding transfer instalments: £337m

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire warned recovery would not be simple:

“For a club of Spurs’ ambitions and financial scale, relegation would not simply be a short-term sporting setback.”

Broadcast revenue, commercial income, and corporate hospitality earnings would all decline dramatically.

Are Big Clubs Ever “Too Good to Go Down”?

Newcastle won one and drew three of their final 11 fixtures in 2008-09

History suggests no club is immune.

• Nottingham Forest were relegated in 1992-93 despite a squad packed with talent.

• Newcastle United dropped in 2008-09 and again in 2015-16.

• Leeds United fell as far as League One after Premier League glory.

Confidence, momentum and mentality often matter more than star names when survival battles intensify.

The Verdict

On paper, Tottenham possess enough quality to stay up. The remaining fixtures include direct clashes with fellow strugglers — games that could define their season.

But poor home form, a mounting injury list, and a squad still adjusting to Tudor’s methods mean Spurs are walking a dangerous line.

They may not be favourites for relegation.

But history shows that “too big to go down” is rarely a reliable safety net.