Can Anyone Stop Sabalenka at the Australian Open?

Sabalenka Eyes Third Australian Open Title Amid Stiff Semi-Final Test

Aryna Sabalenka, world No. 1 and reigning force on hard courts, is two wins away from claiming a third Australian Open title in four years. Dominant in Melbourne, the Belarusian has won 24 of her last 25 matches at the tournament and enters the 2026 semi-finals without dropping a set.

However, three top-15 contenders—Elina Svitolina, Elena Rybakina, and Jessica Pegula—stand in her way. Each brings unique strengths and recent form into the final four, hoping to spoil Sabalenka’s campaign for Grand Slam No. 4.

Elina Svitolina: “Looking to Take Initiative”

• Head-to-head vs Sabalenka: Sabalenka leads 5–1

• Hard court record: Sabalenka leads 2–0

• Last meeting: Sabalenka def. Svitolina 6–3, 7–5 (Madrid 2025)

Svitolina, 31, is in her first Australian Open semi-final and chases a maiden Grand Slam final. Since returning from maternity leave, she’s adopted a more aggressive style, helping her surge into the latter stages of majors.

“It’s no secret she [Sabalenka] is a very powerful player,” said Svitolina.

“I’ll try to find the little holes and take the initiative.”

Elena Rybakina: “Ready to Risk”

• Head-to-head vs Sabalenka: Sabalenka leads 8–6

• Hard court record: Rybakina leads 6–5

• Last meeting: Rybakina def. Sabalenka 6–3, 7–6 (WTA Finals 2025)

If anyone can match Sabalenka’s pace and power, it’s Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion. The Kazakhstani has the best recent record against top-10 players (8 wins) and leads Sabalenka on hard courts.

“The most important thing is to stay aggressive and use my serve,” Rybakina said.

“It’s about taking risks and seizing those key points.”

Jessica Pegula: “I Have the Tools”

• Head-to-head vs Sabalenka: Sabalenka leads 9–3

• Hard court record: Sabalenka leads 6–3

• Last meeting: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6–4, 2–6, 6–3 (WTA Finals 2025)

After losing to Sabalenka in the 2024 US Open final, Pegula is hoping to go one step further. Since turning 30, she’s reached her third Grand Slam semi-final, crediting her improved mentality and game versatility.

“I just know how to be in this position more,” Pegula noted.

“I think I have more tools now.”

Sabalenka’s Mindset Shift Could Be the Key

Despite her dominant results, Sabalenka admitted to emotional struggles earlier in the tournament—something that had previously cost her at the majors. Aided by a sports psychologist, she has worked to focus on execution rather than emotion.

“I’m trying to shift my focus on the right things and take it step by step,” she said.

“What’s really helping me is the focus I’m having.”

Sabalenka has now reached 14 of the past 17 Grand Slam semi-finals and has won her last six on hard courts. Still, with seasoned and in-form challengers circling, this year’s crown is far from guaranteed.