Manchester City Told ‘Most Likely’ Punishment to Expect if Found Guilty in 115-Charge FFP Case

Financial expert reveals possible sanctions as Pep Guardiola’s side await verdict with tension mounting in Manchester

There’s a familiar mix of anxiety and defiance rippling through Manchester this week. After nearly two years of legal wrangling, Manchester City are finally approaching the verdict of one of the most complex cases in English football history — their 115-charge Financial Fair Play (FFP) investigation. The Premier League’s independent commission has spent months pouring over documents, statements, and financial records, and now, an outcome is said to be imminent.

For City, who vehemently deny all allegations, the stakes could not be higher. The potential consequences range from a simple fine to something far more devastating — a points deduction, or even relegation. Yet, according to one football finance expert, the most likely punishment the champions could face, if found guilty, would fall somewhere in between.

Man City’s 115 Charges: A Case That Shook the Premier League

Manchester City v Plymouth Argyle – Emirates FA Cup Fifth Round

It’s worth remembering just how we got here. Back in February 2023, the Premier League formally charged Manchester City with 115 alleged breaches of financial rules, dating back to 2009 — a period that coincides with the early years of the club’s rise under Abu Dhabi ownership.

The allegations include failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching profitability and sustainability regulations, and not cooperating fully with Premier League investigations between 2018 and 2023.

The detailed list of charges reads like a legal thriller:

• Failure to provide “accurate and up-to-date financial information” for the seasons 2009/10 through 2017/18.
• Failure to give transparent reports on manager and player compensation in the same period.
• Breaches of the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability regulations from 2015 to 2018.
• Failure to comply with UEFA’s Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play rules.
• And, crucially, failure to cooperate with the Premier League’s ongoing investigation since 2018.

It’s a web of allegations that span nearly a decade — and it’s no wonder that hearings, which reportedly lasted 10 weeks last autumn, took so long to conclude.

City, for their part, have maintained their innocence throughout, stating repeatedly that they have “irrefutable evidence” of compliance and are “fully confident” of being cleared. Yet as the decision looms, the uncertainty is weighing heavy on the Etihad.

The Long Road to a Verdict

The Premier League’s independent commission began hearing the case in September last year. The sheer scale of the evidence — thousands of pages of financial data, contracts, and correspondence — made it one of the largest reviews in sporting legal history.

It’s also been one of the most secretive. Unlike UEFA’s FFP investigations, which are made public, the Premier League’s process has been conducted behind closed doors. Neither City nor the League have disclosed details of the hearings, leaving fans, pundits, and even rival clubs in the dark.

Now, more than a year later, reports suggest a decision could finally arrive “in the coming weeks.”

But, as football finance expert Dr. Dan Plumley told Grosvenor Sport, even a verdict might not bring closure.

“It depends on what the verdict is and what either side does next,” said Plumley. “Both parties have the right to appeal, and we’ve already heard noises from City in the past that they would look to appeal and tie the Premier League up in litigation. These things are never straightforward — you’re dealing with power, money, and egos.”

That’s the key point: even once a verdict lands, this saga could drag on for months, if not years.

The Costly Business of Football Justice

It’s not just time-consuming — it’s expensive. Plumley noted that the legal fees on both sides are astronomical, with top-tier lawyers, forensic accountants, and financial investigators involved in every stage.

“It was always likely to be a lengthy process given the amount of charges and the time frame it relates to,” he said. “Lawyers on both sides need to pore over the detail, and then there is the independent commission hearing and the verdict itself.
There will then be a further delay until we see the decision and any detail in the public domain, which is again normal in the course of how these things run. It’s a very costly exercise on both sides, that’s for sure.”

This drawn-out nature of financial cases is not new. UEFA’s own FFP investigation into City, which led to a two-year European ban in 2020 before being overturned by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), followed a similar pattern. City were cleared on technical grounds — not because they were exonerated of all wrongdoing, but because the alleged breaches were deemed time-barred.

The Premier League, however, operates differently. Its rules do not include time limits, meaning no historical financial period is off-limits.

Man City Told the ‘Most Likely’ Punishment

Manchester City Trophy Parade

So, what happens if Manchester City are found guilty?

While much of this remains speculation, Dr. Plumley offered his educated prediction.

“If City were to be found guilty, then all of those things would potentially be on the table as sanctions,” he said. “The Premier League could push for any or a combination of outcomes. It is really difficult to predict what any outcome could be, as there is no precedent.

“We will always be in the realms of speculation until we know, but if I were to speculate, I would suggest that a points deduction and fine would be most likely, with relegation and title stripping being the extreme — but unlikely — scenarios.”

That view aligns with much of the expert consensus. A points deduction, potentially in the 10–15 point range, would be devastating enough to derail City’s domestic campaign without triggering full-blown chaos. Title-stripping, while dramatic, would set a dangerous precedent that the League may wish to avoid.

Still, in a case this unprecedented, nothing can be ruled out.

The Legal Domino Effect

If City are punished, it could unleash a wave of litigation from other clubs. Rivals who finished just below City in past seasons — think Liverpool, Manchester United, or even Tottenham — might seek compensation for lost revenue or titles.

It could also lead to deeper questions about Premier League governance itself. How did potential breaches go unchecked for so long? How does the league balance fairness with commercial power? And what does this mean for the competition’s global credibility?

For City, an appeal seems inevitable if the verdict goes against them. Their ownership group has never been shy of legal confrontation, and with near-unlimited financial resources, they could drag the case through the courts for years.

City’s Focus on the Pitch: Guardiola’s Machine Keeps Rolling

Amid the storm of speculation, Pep Guardiola’s team have tried to keep their focus squarely on the pitch. Following the international break, City return to Premier League action against Everton at the Etihad, looking to extend a four-game unbeaten run.

They sit three points behind Arsenal, who top the table, but confidence in the camp remains high. After a trophyless 2024/25 campaign, Guardiola’s men are desperate to bounce back — and early signs this season suggest they’re still as relentless as ever.

City finished third last season, 13 points behind champions Liverpool, and suffered a string of rare disappointments — losing the FA Cup final to Crystal Palace and bowing out of the Champions League earlier than at any point in over a decade, falling to Real Madrid in the knockout phase playoffs.

That dip only adds to the sense that this season, both on and off the field, is defining.

The Bigger Picture: A Club That Changed Football

Whatever the outcome of this case, Manchester City’s legacy in English football is undeniable. From the moment Sheikh Mansour’s takeover reshaped the club’s fortunes in 2008, they’ve become a symbol — of modern football’s financial revolution, of sports science and tactical evolution, and of the blurred lines between investment and regulation.

Under Pep Guardiola, they’ve elevated the Premier League’s standard of play to dizzying heights. But as their dominance has grown, so too have the questions about the sustainability — and legality — of that success.

This FFP investigation, then, is not just about balance sheets and sponsorships. It’s about the future of financial regulation in football.

What Happens Next?

With the verdict said to be imminent, all eyes are on the Premier League’s independent commission. If City are cleared, they will see it as vindication — the final confirmation that their success was earned, not engineered.

If they’re found guilty, football faces one of the most explosive fallouts in modern sporting history.

But one thing is certain: whatever happens next, Manchester City — both the club and the idea — will never be the same again.