Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship Showdown: A Three-Way Title Fight Set for Abu Dhabi

As the sun begins to set on another gripping Formula 1 season, the sport arrives at a familiar stage for high-stakes drama: the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi. This time, though, the script feels different. The Formula 1 drivers’ championship is heading toward a three-way showdown, with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri all still in the hunt for the crown.

Norris enters the weekend as the championship leader, holding a 12-point margin over Verstappen and a 16-point advantage over team-mate Piastri. On paper, those numbers give the 24-year-old McLaren driver a cushion. But if this venue has taught us anything—from Hamilton vs Vettel, to the unforgettable 2021 finale—it’s that Abu Dhabi has a habit of ripping up the script.

And with three evenly matched contenders, two of whom share a garage, the ingredients are in place for a finale dripping with tension.

Three-Way Showdown: Who Truly Has the Best Car?

McLaren’s Lando Norris with team-mate Oscar Piastri following behind during the Sao Paulo Grand Prix weekend

On the stopwatch, McLaren appear to hold the upper hand. Across the season, the papaya team boast the strongest average qualifying pace, edging Red Bull by more than two tenths over the last eight races alone. That statistic feels even more impressive when looking at the distribution of pole positions: Norris and Verstappen have seven apiece, with Piastri contributing six more.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the same level of dominance doesn’t translate to wins. Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all sit locked on seven victories each, with George Russell picking up the remaining two for Mercedes. For all of McLaren’s strength, the championship standings have rarely enjoyed long periods of stability.

McLaren’s constructors’ title, wrapped up as early as Singapore, paints a clear picture of their consistency. They have something no other team can claim this season: two drivers capable of winning every weekend. But while that’s a blessing for the team, it’s a complication for the title race.

Verstappen, by contrast, has been a one-man army at Red Bull. The Dutchman has scored more than 92% of the team’s points. Yuki Tsunoda, unable to match him and offering no strategic threat or cover, has already been dropped for next season. Red Bull’s hopes—and their fight—have rested entirely on Verstappen’s shoulders.

The performance ebb and flow between the cars has been nuanced. Tracks with long, sweeping corners have typically favoured McLaren, while Red Bull’s strength lies in straight-line efficiency and sharp braking zones.

Yas Marina offers a mix of both: long corners feeding into lengthy straights, but also several 90-degree, stop-start sections. In other words, a circuit capable of rewarding either car depending on set-up and confidence. That balance alone feels like a recipe for fireworks.

History at Yas Marina: Does It Matter This Time?

Max Verstappen holds up four fingers to the camera to celebrate winning the 2024 drivers’ championship at the Las Vegas Grand Prix

A glance at recent results would suggest Verstappen is the one to watch. The Dutchman has won every Abu Dhabi Grand Prix since 2020, although the 2021 edition remains one of the most controversial races in F1 history. His duel with Lewis Hamilton—and the officiating decisions that followed—are still a point of debate years later.

Yet statistics don’t tell the whole story. This is only Piastri’s third year in Formula 1. Norris, though more experienced, only began consistently fighting at the front in 2023. Verstappen, meanwhile, has been winning races since 2016.

What feels more relevant is last year’s race, when Norris dominated from start to finish in Abu Dhabi. He looked untouchable that day—and since the summer break this season, he has rediscovered that form, overturning a 34-point deficit to Piastri and climbing back into contention.

A Season of Shifting Momentum

Momentum has been slippery all year. Early in the season, Red Bull could only challenge McLaren on certain tracks—circuits like Suzuka, Jeddah and Imola, where high-speed balance is king. Piastri thrived during that stretch while Norris wrestled with specific handling traits he struggled to gel with.

But as temperatures cooled and the calendar rolled toward its climax, Norris came alive. After the summer break, he transformed into McLaren’s leading force, surging past his team-mate and into the title lead.

Red Bull, meanwhile, endured a drastic mid-season dip. Verstappen sat a staggering 104 points behind the leader at one point. Then came the Italian Grand Prix in September, when Red Bull introduced a package of small but significant upgrades. Suddenly the RB20 snapped back into contention, with Verstappen delivering three wins and a second place across just four races.

Over the last two rounds, the pendulum swung again—Red Bull stronger in Las Vegas, McLaren quicker in Qatar. Abu Dhabi, with its split personality layout, represents new territory for this stage of the fight.

Team Dynamics: McLaren’s Delicate Balancing Act

This is where the tension sharpens. McLaren may lead both championships, but they face a complex political weekend. With two drivers mathematically alive in the title race, Andrea Stella’s team must find the balance between fairness and the clear organisational desire to secure the drivers’ crown—no matter which driver seals it.

Their stance is public: let them race, until the moment one is no longer realistically in contention.

But suppose Verstappen is leading the race, Piastri is third, and Norris sits fourth. In that scenario, Verstappen becomes champion. If Piastri were to move aside and allow Norris into third, the title swings back toward McLaren.

Would the call come? Almost certainly. But only once the team is certain Piastri can no longer win the championship himself.

At Red Bull, life is simpler: there is no second card to play. Unless, that is, a McLaren suddenly finds itself behind one of the junior Red Bull cars—Hadjar, Lawson or Tsunoda. In that case, expect a level of defensive driving reminiscent of Sergio Pérez’s legendary blocking of Hamilton in 2021.

Mentality: Who Handles the Pressure Best?

Pressure, at this level, is everything. For Norris, the weight is enormous. This is his first shot at a Formula 1 title—and McLaren’s first genuine chance since 2008. Unlike Red Bull, McLaren’s modern structure has never navigated a championship finale. Mistakes like their costly Qatar strategy call highlight that learning curve.

Verstappen, meanwhile, arrives with nothing to lose. Red Bull never expected to be in this fight, and the Dutchman has already won multiple world titles. His repeated mantra—“It won’t change my life if I win or not”—sounds like a shrug, but it’s also a statement of freedom. He, of all three contenders, appears the most relaxed.

And Piastri? Quiet, sharp and ruthlessly consistent. He may be the outsider, but something about him feels dangerous in a low-pressure situation.

A Finale Worthy of the Season

One race remains. Three drivers can still be champion. Two teams, two philosophies, one venue with a history of absolute chaos.

If Abu Dhabi delivers another chapter of Formula 1 madness, nobody will be surprised.
If this finale becomes one we talk about for years, even less so.

Whatever happens under the floodlights on Sunday, the Formula 1 drivers’ championship has delivered a three-way showdown worthy of the sport’s most dramatic stage.