Could Mercedes Really Drop Russell for Verstappen in 2026?

F1 Silly Season Heats Up: Verstappen to Mercedes?

As Formula 1 heads into its mid-season stretch, one of the most intriguing narratives on the paddock grapevine has suddenly shifted into higher gear: Could Mercedes really opt to part ways with George Russell in favour of a bold swoop for Max Verstappen in 2026?

It might seem far-fetched on the surface. After all, Russell has been in sublime form this season—metronomic in qualifying, tenacious in wheel-to-wheel combat, and level-headed in pressure situations. He even secured a win earlier this year, underlining just how far he’s come since his Williams days. But when you’re dealing with drivers of Verstappen’s calibre, all assumptions are up for review.

Why Toto Wolff Is Keeping the Door Open

Team principal Toto Wolff is known for playing the long game. He isn’t one to ignore an opportunity when it knocks, especially not when it involves the reigning triple world champion. While Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull Racing until 2028, the recent unrest within the Red Bull camp has opened a narrow but intriguing window for negotiations.

Interestingly, it was Russell himself who lifted the veil during the Austrian Grand Prix weekend, acknowledging that it was “only normal” for Mercedes to be talking to someone of Verstappen’s stature. It was a candid and, some might say, self-aware admission.

The Verstappen Factor

McLaren reserve driver Alex Dunne during the Austrian Grand Prix weekend Verstappen

Let’s face it: Verstappen is still the measuring stick in modern F1. He’s a proven race-winner, a title-clincher, and perhaps the most complete driver on the grid. Any team would love to have him, and Mercedes are no different. For Wolff, Verstappen represents an opportunity to return to the summit of the sport and reset Mercedes’ competitive trajectory in the new 2026 engine regulation era.

So, if Verstappen does indeed entertain the idea of switching teams, Mercedes must then ask: who makes the better teammate for Max? According to many insiders, the answer might not be Russell. Not because of a lack of skill, but due to team dynamics.

The Russell-Verstappen Dilemma

There’s little love lost between Verstappen and Russell. Their on-track run-ins and thinly veiled jabs in media sessions point to a strained relationship. The notion of pairing them together raises questions about internal harmony.

This brings Kimi Antonelli into play. The Italian prodigy, currently climbing the junior ranks, is seen as Mercedes’ long-term investment. A Verstappen-Antonelli line-up would be explosive in potential, stable in hierarchy, and perfect for marketing.

Would it be harsh on Russell? Undoubtedly. But F1 isn’t about fairness—it’s about performance, branding, and, most of all, winning. Mercedes did the same when they opted to sign Lewis Hamilton over keeping Nico Rosberg and even dropped Valtteri Bottas in favour of Russell himself. Loyalty is often secondary to ambition in this sport.

Red Bull’s Position: Public Calm, Private Concern?

Christian Horner continues to brush off speculation, reaffirming that Verstappen has a deal through 2028 and suggesting the “noise” isn’t coming from the Dutchman himself. That may be so, but the whispers are real—and they’re growing louder.

Horner’s calm exterior hides deeper uncertainties within Red Bull’s camp. From internal tensions to shifts in leadership and questions surrounding the long-term Honda-Ford engine transition, there’s plenty that could unsettle even a contractually-bound superstar.

What About Hamilton at Ferrari?

While Mercedes wrestle with the future, another storyline looms large—Lewis Hamilton’s adaptation at Ferrari. Questions around whether the seven-time champion will have any say in reshaping his engineering team continue to stir the waters.

So far, Hamilton has downplayed the speculation, saying there’s no issue between himself and his race engineer Riccardo Adami. He insists they’re finding their rhythm, even if radio messages suggest occasional friction. Ferrari, too, is eager to portray unity, calling any disagreements standard driver-engineer dialogue.

But can Hamilton, famous for demanding high standards and technical influence, truly sit on the sidelines when it comes to strategy and setup? That remains to be seen.

Alex Dunne’s Future in F1

Turning to the next generation, Alex Dunne impressed mightily in his FP1 appearance for McLaren in Austria, lapping just 0.069s slower than Oscar Piastri. That’s no small feat, especially for a 19-year-old rookie.

If Dunne wins Formula 2, he’ll need to graduate. But with no McLaren seat available and few open spots elsewhere, his future remains uncertain. He may need to take the long route—perhaps via IndyCar or a loan deal, assuming another team agrees to take him on temporarily.

Still, the buzz around Dunne is real. As problems go, McLaren’s dilemma—what to do with a driver so good—is a welcome one.

Cadillac’s Fresh Start in Formula 1

Lastly, Cadillac’s entry into F1 raises questions—not about whether they’ll survive, but how successful they can be. Building a team from scratch is a herculean challenge, especially when rivals like Audi have taken over existing teams like Sauber.

Cadillac’s approach is methodical, ambitious, and realistic. They’ll use Ferrari engines until 2029, when their own GM power unit debuts. With bases in Silverstone, Indianapolis, and Charlotte, they are juggling a multi-site operation with a NASA-style mission-control ethos.

This isn’t about instant results. As team principal Graeme Lowdon put it: “Can you imagine if a brand-new team turns up and beats you? That would be shocking. So we assume we’ll be last to begin with.”

But with General Motors behind them, the question isn’t “if” Cadillac will be a presence in F1, but how quickly they can climb the mountain.

From Verstappen-to-Mercedes whispers, Hamilton’s Ferrari evolution, and Dunne’s rising stock, to Cadillac’s bold F1 venture—this season is shaping up to be far more than just what’s happening on track. In F1, the most important battles often begin long before the lights go out.