xG Reveals Premier League’s Early Dominance and Defensive Flaws

What xG Tells Us About Premier League Teams’ Early Form

As the 2025-26 Premier League season progresses, the traditional table shows only part of the story. Dive deeper, and expected goals (xG) offers a more analytical view of which clubs are truly dominating matches — and which are skating on thin ice.

Arsenal & Manchester City Lead on Both Ends

Arsenal and Manchester City are setting the standard, not just in terms of points but also in underlying metrics.

• Arsenal boast the best defence and 4th-best attack based on non-penalty xG.

• City, meanwhile, share the top attack with Crystal Palace, and have the 4th-best defence.

Their xG numbers reflect not just possession, but consistent chance creation and minimal threat allowed at the back — a proven recipe for long-term success.

Crystal Palace, Newcastle Impress; United & Chelsea Split

Crystal Palace are turning heads with elite attacking numbers — matching City’s xG per shot average of 0.14, meaning they create high-quality opportunities.

Newcastle, on the other hand, are excelling defensively, allowing the fewest shots and lowest xG per chance, almost matching Arsenal.

Meanwhile:

• Manchester United and Chelsea feature among the top five attacks.

• But both are also in the bottom five defences, a balance that rarely sustains title challenges.

United and Burnley: Defensive Red Flags

Two clubs stand out for all the wrong reasons defensively.

• Manchester United allow just 9.1 shots per game, which seems solid…

  • But the average xG per shot faced is 0.16 — the highest in the league, meaning the chances are high-quality and very dangerous.

• Burnley, meanwhile, face a staggering 18.4 shots per game, four more than any other side. Although the xG per shot is low, the sheer volume poses a huge issue.

Tottenham Overperforming, But For How Long?

Tottenham Hotspur currently sit far higher than their xG numbers suggest.

• They’ve scored 5 goals more than expected.

• Goalkeeper Vicario has been a standout, saving 2.9 more goals than expected — the most in the league.

But manager Thomas Frank, known for his data-driven approach at Brentford, will be well aware that overperformance doesn’t last. Sustained success will require more control and consistency.

Leeds, Sunderland Adapt; Villa Stalling

Among the promoted sides:

• Leeds and Sunderland have handled the transition well.

• Burnley, however, rank last in both attack and defence based on xG, showing the step up has been too steep so far.

Aston Villa’s struggles no longer stem from poor finishing — they are scoring at the expected rate (6.0 xG = 6 goals) — but simply from not generating enough chances or control.

Quality vs Quantity: The Shot Debate

• Arsenal, United, and Liverpool take the most shots (~15 per game).

• However, City and Palace lead in chance quality, not quantity.

  • Their shots average 0.14 xG, meaning 14% historical conversion rate — compared to 10% from Arsenal/United/Liverpool.

Brentford are also interesting — only 8 shots per game, but still mid-table in attack due to high-quality chances.

The Big Picture

With roughly a quarter of the season complete, xG analysis shows us which teams are built to last — and which are leaning too heavily on luck, great goalkeeping, or hot finishing streaks.

• Expect City, Arsenal, and Newcastle to maintain form.

• Watch out for potential regression from Spurs, United, and Burnley if underlying metrics don’t improve.

As stats-savvy managers increasingly rely on these insights, fans too can see the true performance levels beyond the scoreboard.