Six English teams in Champions League a step closer
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur both took huge strides towards reaching the Europa League final with convincing semi-final first-leg wins on Thursday.
United won 3-0 at Athletic Bilbao, who host the final on 21 May, while Tottenham saw off Bodo/Glimt 3-1 in London.
Statisticians Opta give United a 97% chance of reaching the final – with 91% for Spurs – meaning an 88% likelihood of both being there.
That would create just a sixth all-English final in any major European competition – with half of them involving Spurs.
It would also mean six English teams in next season’s Champions League.
Are we getting ahead of ourselves?
Opta’s data gives only a 12% chance of it not being an all-English final.
United’s 3-0 win over Athletic, who sit fourth in La Liga, was hugely impressive – and they will hope home advantage next week means they will get over the line.
Spurs may feel like the job is not quite as complete, especially with fresh injury scares surrounding James Maddison and Dominic Solanke.
Norwegian Arctic side Glimt’s win rate at home in the Europa League since 2022-23 is 70%, compared to 9% on the road – and they have key players returning for the second leg.
Man Utd v Spurs final would mean ‘lowest-ranked winner’ of Europa League
Manchester United and Tottenham’s unusually poor domestic seasons mean that if both teams reach the Europa League final next week and stay in their current Premier League positions, the winner would be the lowest-ranked domestic side to win the competition in the past 15 years.
Opta data shows that since the Europa League was rebranded in 2009-10, no team finishing lower than 12th has competed in the final or won it.
Sevilla (12th) won the tournament in 2023, while Fulham (12th) lost the final in 2010.
And this is also the first season with new league phase formats in Europe – previously teams who finished third in their Champions League groups would drop into the Europa League, in theory making the competition harder to win.
When West Ham won the Conference League in 2023, they finished 14th in the Premier League that same season.
Why could England get a sixth Champions League place?
The winners of the Europa League go into the following season’s Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
So a United v Spurs final would guarantee them a return to the mega-riches of European football’s top table.
That rule is handy for United – who sit 14th – and Spurs – who are 16th – both more than 20 points behind fifth place.
Without winning the Europa League, neither of them will be in any European competition next season.
It would not have any knock-on effect on any other English teams – with the top five guaranteed a Champions League spot through the league.
That fifth spot came as a result of English clubs’ performances in Europe this season.
Could England have a clean sweep of European trophies?
No country’s teams have ever won the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in the same season (albeit the latter is only in its fourth year).
But it could yet happen for England this term – with teams in all the semis.
The smallest chance (12.1% say Opta) is for Arsenal, who lost 1-0 at home to Paris St-Germain in the Champions League first leg on Tuesday.
In the Conference League, Chelsea have looked like likely winners all season. They won 4-1 at Djurgarden in their semi-final first leg.
What does Europe say about strength of Premier League?
It may just be a snapshot in time – especially given Arsenal could be out of the Champions League by Wednesday night.
But, alongside England’s four potential European finalists this season, the Premier League could feasibly have around nine or 10 clubs in Europe again next season, depending on permutations.
Liverpool head coach Arne Slot, asked about the strength of the Premier League on Friday, said: “The number 14 and 16 in the Premier League have so much more funds than the number one in Holland, for example.
“It is not a surprise that English teams go all the way into Europe, especially in the Europa League and Conference League, because they are in a different league when it comes to money compared to other teams.
“The Champions League is more balanced so it’s a big achievement from Arsenal that they are still in the semi-final.
“It tells you how much money there is in this league and how strong this league is, but we all knew this. We didn’t need this season to know that the Premier League is by far the most competitive league in the world.”
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire believes English success in Europe is closely correlated to budgets.
He said: “Premier League clubs in total generate twice as much money than clubs in La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and probably about five times as much revenue as Ligue 1.
“Therefore it is not a surprise to see ‘middle tier’ clubs from England having vastly higher budgets than clubs against which they’re competing.
“They can turn this into success in European competitions through being able to recruit and retain some of the best talent in Europe that isn’t deemed good enough to play for the truly elite clubs in Europe such as PSG, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.”
What were the other all-English finals?
Tottenham won the 1972 Uefa Cup and lost the 2019 Champions League final against English teams
The first Uefa Cup in 1971-72 was between Tottenham and Wolves in a two-legged final.
Spurs won the first leg 2-1 at Molineux, with Martin Chivers scoring twice, and drew 1-1 at White Hart Lane two weeks later.
It would take 36 years for the next all-English final, which was in the 2007-08 Champions League as Manchester United beat Chelsea on penalties in Moscow.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Frank Lampard traded goals before a shootout that is best remembered for John Terry’s miss after slipping.
There were two all-English finals in 2018-19.
Liverpool beat Tottenham 2-0 in the Champions League in Madrid, with goals from Mohamed Salah and Divock Origi.
And Chelsea saw off Arsenal 4-1 in Baku in the Europa League, with Eden Hazard netting twice in his final game for the club.
Two years later Chelsea beat Manchester City 1-0 in the Champions League, with Kai Havertz scoring the only goal in Porto.
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